📪 HH #87: Brace for what's next
- Justin Hubbard
- Jun 28
- 6 min read
TL;DR – War = rising fuel prices, supply chain shocks, nervous customers.And it hits our industry hard.
🛻 Fuel goes up → dump fees go up → your margins shrink🏚️ Renovations slow → junk jobs dip📉 Customers tighten up → you need to pivot fast
But not everything stops. In fact, some jobs speed up:
✅ Foreclosures
✅ Evictions
✅ Code violations
✅ Insurance cleanups
✅ Wealthy homeowners staying put
Now’s the time to tighten operations, raise prices smartly, and go after need-based work.
Skip the price shoppers. Stock what matters. Protect your uptime.
Discipline wins. Flash doesn’t.
We’re watching the news again. Middle East tension. Talk of another war. Some say we’re already in World War III—just in slow motion. Others say it’s all fear. Either way, something’s brewing.
And whether it explodes or fizzles out, I want to talk about what this could mean for folks like us—junk haulers, demo crews, dumpster rental guys.
I’m not an economist. But I’ve been in the hauling game for over a decade. I watch the patterns. I watch fuel prices. I talk to guys around the country every week.
So here’s what I think you need to know right now—and how to stay ready.
When the World Goes to War, Fuel Goes Up
War in the Middle East often means oil prices go up. When oil goes up, gas and diesel follow. Back in 1990 during the Gulf War, gas spiked. In 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, gas hit $5+ a gallon.
And if Iran gets involved now—or something pops off in Taiwan—we could see another jump. And fast.
What does that mean for us?
Your trucks get more expensive to run
Dump fees rise (because landfills run on diesel too)
Your materials cost more (everything is shipped)
Customers may start to tighten their wallets even further
Even a 50¢ jump in fuel can wreck your margin if you don’t adjust.
Tip: If you haven’t built in a fuel surcharge or minimum job fee, now’s the time. You need breathing room if prices spike again.
Fewer Renovations, Fewer Jobs (At First)
When people get nervous, they stop spending on non-essentials. Home renovations slow down. Demo projects get pushed. Flippers sit tight. Homebuyers wait.
We already saw this in 2023 when interest rates hit 7%—home sales dropped to the lowest they’ve been in decades.
Less buying and selling means:
Fewer garage clean-outs
Fewer pre-move junk jobs
Fewer “rip out and redo” projects
Less demand for contractors = less demand for dumpsters
Now, this doesn’t mean there’s no work. It means you’ll need to shift your focus to what’s still moving.
What Keeps Moving in Times Like This?
Here's the good news. Not everything slows down in war or recession. In fact, some things speed up.
✅ Foreclosures and evictions go up
✅ Insurance claim jobs still happen
✅ Landlords still need turnovers
✅ City work and cleanups often grow (more grants, more public funding)
✅ Wealthy clients don’t stop doing projects
If you’re smart, you pivot. You chase work that doesn’t depend on consumer confidence.
Dump Fees Are Climbing (And Won’t Stop)
Dump fees are already rising. In 2024, the national average was $67 per ton. In the Northeast? Closer to $100/ton. If fuel rises again, you better believe dump fees will go up too.
Most guys I know don’t adjust pricing fast enough. You’ll eat those costs unless you update your pricing sheet. This is not being greedy—it’s survival mode. And no one likes fees, so just work it into your prices.
Equipment Delays and Price Hikes
You think parts are expensive now? Imagine trying to replace a truck in the middle of a global conflict. Wars mess with global supply chains—especially for steel, rubber, electronics, and semiconductors.
If you’ve got old tires, old hoses, or a truck that’s limping along—don’t wait. Replace it before things get worse. Order ahead. Stock key parts. Protect your uptime.
How to Get Ahead of the Curve
1. Know Your Numbers
Figure out your cost per job—including dump fees, fuel, labor, and admin time. Track every penny. No guessing. No gut feelings. You either know your break-even, or you’re risking profitability on every quote.
2. Adjust Prices Intelligently
Don’t add a fuel surcharge. Nobody likes line-item fees or surprise add-ons. Just work the fuel increase into your regular prices. If your jobs cost more to run, raise your rates a bit across the board. Simple. Clean. No explaining needed.
It’s easier for a customer to accept a $20 higher quote than to feel nickel-and-dimed with “fuel fees” and “environmental fees” like the cable company. Charge what it takes to stay profitable. That’s your job.
3. Stay Local and Efficient
Don’t drive 30 miles to chase a $200 job. Shrink your service area. Batch your routes. Save time and fuel.
4. Stock the Essentials
If you rely on something—stock it now. Think:
Gloves, blades, tools
Dumpster tires or tarps
Flyers or door hangers for low-cost marketing
Don’t wait until the shelves are empty.
5. Focus on “Need-Based” Work and High-Intent Work
Now’s not the time to chase flaky tire-kickers or price-shoppers. Focus on work that people have to do—not just want to do. That includes:
Code violations: Network with property managers, landlords, and town offices. Join local real estate investor groups. Hand out cards at town hall. These jobs are often urgent and non-negotiable.
Move-outs and evictions: Partner with eviction attorneys, landlords, and management companies. Build relationships—they need reliable cleanup crews fast when the clock runs out on a tenant.
Hoarder homes & estate cleanouts: Reach out to local realtors, probate attorneys, and senior move managers. These are emotional jobs—so emphasize trust, respect, and professionalism.
Light demo for contractors: Hit up local general contractors or remodeling pros. Offer to be their go-to for selective demo—cabinets, tile, decks, sheds. They’ll gladly sub it out if you’re fast and clean.
But also…
🟢 Don’t ignore affluent homeowners.
These folks still spend during downturns. They remodel to stay put instead of moving. They hire help instead of DIY. You just have to:
Show professionalism
Offer easy booking and white-glove service
Be responsive and polished
They aren’t cheap—they’re selective. There’s a big difference. The key is to target urgent jobs and serious clients, no matter their income. Skip the tire-kickers. Go after the work that’s needed, not just wanted.
Final Thought: Prepare, Don’t Panic
We may already be in a war. Business has peaks and valleys. You can’t avoid that. But the ones who stay lean, tighten up their systems, stay consistent, and stay available—they’re the ones who make it out stronger.
Not the flashiest. Not the loudest.
The most disciplined.
If you’re the one who:
Answers the phone every time
Follows up
Runs a clean crew
Adjusts when things shift
…then you’ll outlast the noise.
That’s the Hauler’s Edge ✌️
Justin Hubbard
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