📪 HH #102: the next 18 months

Justin Hubbard
Sep 20
5 min read

TL;DR

AI is pushing displaced workers into blue-collar industries, and junk removal is one of the first stops. More trucks, more ads, more competition. In the next 18–24 months, ad costs will climb 30–50%, job prices will drop, and margins will shrink. If you don’t build your moat now, you’ll be fighting uphill for scraps.

Here’s how to stay untouchable:

Reviews: Add 2–3 per week. Outpace your competition with review velocity.
Own the Map: Dominate Google Business Profile and map pack before CPCs spike.
Paid Ads Lockdown: Test, track, and geo-fence campaigns before click costs soar.
Community Presence: Show up at local events, wrap trucks, and make your brand visible.
Commercial Accounts: Secure contracts with property managers, contractors, and agents for stable, repeat work.
Systematize: Run lean, predictable, and profitable. The operator with the best margins survives every price war.

My prediction:

CPC: $8–$12 → $12–$18
Lead Cost: $40–$60 → $70–$100
Avg. Job: $350–$450 → $300–$400
Margins: 20–25% → 10–15%

The Moat Effect: If you build now, you’ll generate organic leads, command premium pricing, and run efficient enough to profit when others burn out.

👉 You’ve got a shrinking window to lock in your position. Build your moat today — because once the flood hits, you’ll either be the company everyone’s chasing, or the one chasing scraps.

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Full Newsletter 👇

The Tactical Moat-Building Playbook

Your 18–24 Month Checklist to Make Your Junk Removal Business Untouchable

The flood is coming. There's not a question of "if" but "when", and it's already happening.

Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff came right out and said he needs “less heads” on payroll — and AI is the reason. In early September 2025, he confirmed about 4,000 customer support jobs were cut because AI agents are taking their place.

AI is pushing displaced workers into blue-collar industries like ours, and junk removal is one of the first stops. More trucks. More ads. More competition.

If you don’t build a moat now, you’ll be fighting uphill in 18–24 months, paying more for leads, earning less per job, and wondering why your margins are shrinking.

The good news?

You can still lock down your position before the surge hits. Here’s the exact playbook.

Step 1 – Reviews: Become the Unquestioned Local Authority

Goal: Add 2–3 new Google reviews per week until you’re the most-reviewed and highest-rated company in your area.

Actions:

Train your crew to ask for reviews on the spot before leaving a job.
Hand every customer a QR card that links directly to your review form.
Follow up by text and email until the review is posted.
Reply to every review — good or bad — to show you’re engaged.

Pro Tip: Track your review velocity. If you’re adding reviews faster than your nearest competitor, they’ll never catch you.

Step 2 – Own the Digital Map Before Costs Spike

Goal: Show up in the top 3 Google Map Pack results for “junk removal + [your city].”

Actions:

Audit your Google Business Profile — fill out every field.
Add at least 20 before/after photos with geo-tags in your service area.
Post weekly updates (project photos, offers, seasonal tips).
Ask customers to upload photos with their reviews for credibility.

Pro Tip: Run Google Ads now to build history and Quality Score while clicks are still

"relatively" cheap.

Step 3 – Paid Ads Territory Lockdown

Goal: Secure ad positions before CPC (cost per click) jumps 30–50% in the next wave of competition.

Actions:

Test 3–5 ad variations to find the best-performing headlines and CTAs.
Track every lead from click → close to know your real cost per job.
Build campaigns specifically for high-value jobs (estate cleanouts, commercial projects).
Run re-marketing ads to follow up with people who visited your site but didn’t book.

Pro Tip: Geo-fence your campaigns. Don’t waste money paying for clicks outside your profitable zone.

Step 4 – Community Presence That Newcomers Can’t Copy

Goal: Become the local brand that people recognize and trust.

Actions:

Sponsor 3–4 local events per year (sports teams, town fairs, charity cleanups).
Show up with wrapped trucks and crew gear — visibility matters.
Document everything on social media (short videos, photos, stories).
Offer one free junk pickup per quarter for a local nonprofit and promote it.

Pro Tip: Price shoppers become loyal customers when they feel connected to your company.

Step 5 – Commercial Accounts for Year-Round Stability

Goal: Lock down recurring contracts with property managers, contractors, and real estate agents.

Actions:

Create a one-page service sheet highlighting your benefits (fast turnaround, insured, same-day service).
Offer incentives like priority booking or volume discounts.
Schedule quarterly check-ins or send small thank-you gestures to keep relationships warm.

Pro Tip: One good commercial contract can equal dozens of residential jobs.

Step 6 – Systematize for Efficiency and Profit

Goal: Run lean, predictable, and profitable — even when prices drop.

Actions:

Document every step from booking → payment → follow-up.
Use software for routing, scheduling, invoicing, and payments.
Train crews to follow scripts so the customer experience is consistent.
Track disposal costs, fuel, and crew productivity weekly.

Pro Tip: The operator with the best margins always survives a price war.

The Hard Numbers: Today vs. 2 Years From Now

Here’s what the market shift could look like very soon:

Why These Numbers Change

Google Ads CPC will climb. More operators = higher bids. Even rookies will overpay just to get jobs. $10 clicks could hit $16.
Lead costs will spike. Conversions drop as customers have more options. Your $50 lead could cost $80+.
Average job prices will drop. New entrants undercut. Customers get conditioned to shop for the cheapest rate.
Margins will shrink. Higher marketing costs + lower job prices = less profit unless you get more efficient.

The Moat Effect

Operators who build their moat now will feel this shift the least because:

They’ll generate organic leads (SEO/SXO, referrals, repeat customers).
They’ll command premium pricing as the “safe choice.”
They’ll operate efficiently enough to profit when others burn out.

Build Your Moat Before the Flood

This is a cycle we’ve seen in pressure washing, cleaning, pest control, and moving. High margins always attract a flood of new players. The difference now is AI is accelerating the wave.

You’ve got 18–24 months (probably less) to stack reviews, lock down contracts, dominate the map, and build a brand moat that new entrants can’t touch.

When the flood hits, you’ll either be the company everyone’s chasing — or the one chasing the leftover odd jobs.

That's the Haulers' Edge ✌️