📪 HH #77: Know your numbers, reach your goals
- Justin Hubbard
- Apr 19
- 11 min read
TL;DR – If you want to hit big revenue goals in your home service business (like $400K/year), you need more than hustle — you need math. In this issue, I break down a real convo with a client who wanted 1,000 jobs in a year.
We reverse-engineered it:
$400 avg. job × 1,000 jobs = $400K revenue
50% close rate means he needs 2,000 leads
$40 per lead (Google Ads) × 2,000 = $80K ad spend
But most guys don’t have $80K to throw at ads. That’s when we talked about sweat equity marketing — the low-cost, high-effort stuff like:
Networking
Bandit signs
Door hangers
Cold calls
Targeted direct mail
Local Facebook groups
Marketing isn’t one tactic — it’s a system. Think of it like a wheel with 5–7 spokes (Google Ads, referrals, social, SEO, partnerships, outreach, print). If you rely on one, the wheel collapses. Multiple steady lead sources = sustainable growth.
Bottom line: You either invest money or time. The choice is yours — but the numbers don’t lie. Run them. Set your target. Build your system. And go get those 1,000+ jobs.
Full article 👇
Hello and welcome to this issue of The Hauler’s Edge, our newsletter for junk removal, dumpster rental, demolition, and other home service business owners. In this edition, we’re diving into a real conversation about setting and achieving your revenue goals using some basic business math.
Running a home service business is hard work – you hustle every day to serve customers. But if you have big goals (say you want to hit a certain revenue this year), you need more than hustle – you need a plan.
Today we’ll talk through a conversation I had with a client about knowing your numbers and using them to map out a path to your goal. By the end, you’ll see why understanding metrics like lead cost, close rate, and average job value is so important. You’ll also learn why marketing has to be a system with multiple parts, not just one thing like Google Ads.
And of course, we’ll cover what to do if you don’t have a huge budget for marketing – how you can invest time instead of money to get those leads. Let’s jump in!
The Conversation: Setting a Big Revenue Goal
In a recent chat with a client (a fellow hauling business owner), we got on the topic of revenue goals. He told me, “I want to make $400,000 this year.”
That sounded great – who wouldn’t want to hit 400k?
For his junk removal business, that roughly meant 1,000 jobs in a year (since his average job brought in about $400 revenue). I loved that he had a clear goal, but now it was time for a reality check:
How was he going to get 1,000 jobs in a year?
I asked him what he was doing to generate leads and how much he knew about his marketing numbers. Like many small business owners, he admitted he wasn’t exactly sure.
He’s not alone – nearly two-thirds of small businesses say customer referrals are their best source of new customers. Referrals are awesome, but if you’re aiming for major growth, you can’t rely on just hoping for word-of-mouth.
I told him we should break down his goal into actionable numbers. This is where the fun begins – turning that big revenue goal into a concrete marketing plan.
Doing the Math: From Jobs to Leads to Ad Spend
Step 1: Know Your Averages.
First, we confirmed his average job size was about $400 (some jobs less, some more, but that’s the average he typically earns per job).
Step 2: Set the Job Target.
To reach $400,000 in revenue at $400 per job, he’d need 1,000 jobs. That’s roughly 20 jobs a week (if you work 50 weeks). It’s ambitious, but doable with the right approach.
Step 3: Leads Needed (Close Rate).
Now, nobody closes 100% of their leads (a lead meaning someone who calls or inquires about your service). I asked about his close rate – how many leads turn into actual booked jobs.
He estimated 50% (pretty common in this industry: maybe half the people who call end up booking). A 50% close rate means for every 2 leads, 1 becomes a customer.
So, to get 1,000 jobs, he’d need about 2,000 leads in total. (If your close rate is lower, you’d need even more leads. Conversely, a higher close rate would reduce the number of leads needed.)
Step 4: Cost Per Lead.
He mentioned he’s been using Google Ads to get leads and that on average he pays around $40 per lead from Google.
If each lead costs $40, we multiply that by the 2,000 leads required.
Step 5: Calculate Required Ad Spend.
2,000 leads × $40 per lead = $80,000.
That’s the amount he’d have to spend on Google Ads over the year to generate 2,000 leads, which (at a 50% close rate) would yield his 1,000 jobs and $400k revenue.
In other words, to hit $400k in sales, he might need to invest $80k in advertising.
We can layout the math clearly:
Average Job Value: $400
Annual Revenue Goal: $400,000 (from 1,000 jobs)
Close Rate: 50% (1 in 2 leads becomes a job)
Leads Needed: 1,000 jobs ÷ 50% = 2,000 leads
Cost per Lead (Google Ads): $40
Ad Spend Needed: 2,000 leads × $40 = $80,000
When my client saw these numbers on paper, his eyes went wide. Eighty thousand dollars on ads?!
That was far beyond what he imagined – and way over his current marketing budget.
This is the kind of eye-opener many of us get when we actually do the math. It’s one thing to say “I want $400k revenue.” It’s another to realize what it takes in leads and marketing investment to get there.
Reality Check: Can Your Budget Handle It?
For a lot of small business owners, the example above poses a big challenge. Maybe you don’t have $80k sitting around to pour into ads this year – and that’s okay.
In fact, most local businesses spend only about 5–10% of their revenue on marketing.
For a $400k revenue goal, 10% would be $40k, which is only half of the $80k our calculation came up with. Many newer or smaller businesses spend even less.
So if the math says you “should” spend $80k but you only have, say, $20k or $30k to spare for marketing, what do you do?
This is where you need to get strategic and a bit creative.
You have two ways to invest in marketing: money or time (or ideally, both).
If you’re short on money, you’ll have to invest more time and effort to compensate.
Paid advertising like Google Ads is high-cost, low-time – it doesn’t take much of your time to throw money at ads and let them run.
The opposite approach is low-cost, high-time tactics – things that don’t cost much money, but require your energy, hustle, and consistency.
Time vs. Money: Hustle Marketing When Budgets Are Tight
When my client balked at the $80k ad spend, we started brainstorming all the low-cost ways he could drum up leads. These are tactics that cost little but require elbow grease. I call it “sweat equity” marketing.
Here are some high-time, low-cost lead generation strategies we discussed:
Networking and Referrals
Get out there and meet people. Join local business groups or networking events. Build relationships with realtors, contractors, property managers – anyone who can refer you business.
Remember, referrals are free and powerful – a majority of small businesses count on them, but you often have to ask or prompt for referrals to get them.
And not only that — you first have to deliver a referable service before a past client will even consider referring you.
Dedicate time each week to call past customers or fellow business owners just to stay in touch and remind them what you do.
Bandit Signs / Yard Signs
Those little signs on the side of the road can work. A stack of corrugated plastic signs saying “Junk Removal – Call 123-4567” placed at busy intersections or near Home Depot can grab eyeballs.
They’re fairly cheap to print, and while some may get removed, even a few calls can pay back the cost. The key is consistency – putting them out regularly and in the right spots.
Door Hangers / Flyers
Print up some simple door hangers or flyers and spend a weekend canvassing neighborhoods. Target areas where you think people might need your service or do them while you're on your work route during the week.
This costs more time than money – printing is relatively cheap, but you (or your team) will be walking a lot. It’s old school, but it can work.
Cold Calls/Outreach
Identify businesses or organizations that might need your services and reach out to them directly. Cold calling costs nothing but your time and a bit of courage. Even if nine people hang up, that tenth call could land you a job — and that customer might turn into someone who books you half a dozen times a year and refers four more people your way.
Targeted Direct Mail
Rather than a broad, expensive shotgun style mail campaign, do it laser targeted. For instance, send a letter or postcard to a select list that you scrape from online.
When done in small batches, this won’t break the bank. The response rates might be low, but if you’ve pinpointed a need, one response could be worth a lot. Track where any calls come from to see if it’s working.
Online Freebies
I didn’t forget online entirely! Use free or low-cost online tactics: post on your social media business page regularly, engage in local Facebook groups (many towns have a community group – don’t spam, but be helpful and mention your service when appropriate), list your business on free directories and keep your Google Business Profile updated with posts and photos (this helps you show up in local search without paying for ads). These things mainly cost time and consistency.
All of the above are relatively low-budget methods. What they have in common is they require you to put in the effort.
If you can’t put in money, you have to put in time.
The silver lining: these methods can not only bring leads, but also build your brand presence in your community. People start seeing your signs, your face at events, your posts online – and you become “the junk removal guy” they think of first.
Marketing is a System, Not a One-Trick Pony
One big takeaway from our conversation was this: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Marketing isn’t just one thing like Google Ads or just Facebook or just referrals. It’s a system of multiple lead sources working together.
I often use the analogy of a wheel with multiple spokes: each marketing channel is a spoke in the wheel. If you only have one spoke, your wheel is weak and wobbly. If you have 5–7 strong spokes, your marketing wheel can roll over just about any obstacle and keep your business moving forward.
What could those 5–7 marketing spokes be for a home service business? Here’s a sample “marketing wheel” you might build:
Google Ads / Paid Online Ads – for quick leads (if budget allows, this is one spoke).
SEO & Google Business (Organic) – ensuring you show up in local search results so customers find you naturally.
Referrals & Word-of-Mouth – providing great service and asking for reviews/referrals to get that organic buzz.
Networking & Partnerships – as discussed, relationships with local businesses and groups (real estate agents, contractors, community orgs).
Social Media & Content – an active Facebook/Instagram or even TikTok showing your work, client testimonials, tips – keeping your business visible online.
Local Print/Signs – bandit signs, door hangers, local community bulletin boards, even sponsoring a little league team (your logo on uniforms = awareness).
Direct Outreach – cold calls, direct mail, email newsletters (like this one!) to past customers or targeted prospects.
You don’t need to do all of these at once, but you should have a mix. If you rely on just one source (for example, only Google Ads or only referrals), you’re vulnerable.
What if that source dries up?
The Google algorithm might change or competition could drive ad prices up; or if you only get referrals, a slow month of referrals means no business. A well-rounded strategy ensures that even if one channel slows down, others can pick up the slack.
The key is to build this marketing system over time. Maybe start with 2-3 channels you’re comfortable with, then add more spokes as you grow. The most successful businesses I see are always the ones that have multiple steady lead sources feeding them clients every week.
Take Control: Invest Time or Money, and Own Your Future
By the end of our conversation, my client had a new perspective. He realized that hitting his $400k goal wasn’t about wishful thinking – it was about knowing the numbers and then deciding where those leads will come from.
Sure, we penciled out that $80k in ads could get him there, but we also acknowledged that’s a steep budget for a small business. The reality for him (and maybe for you, too) is that he’ll need to invest either time, money, or a mix of both to generate the 2,000 leads he needs.
The great news is that you are in control of which path to take.
If you have money to invest, you can fuel growth faster with paid marketing. If you don’t, you can invest sweat equity through networking, grassroots marketing, and hustle. In most cases, a combination of some paid ads and a lot of grassroots effort works best.
Most importantly, approach your marketing as a planned system. Set up your “spokes” and keep them turning consistently. Track your results from each channel (know how many leads each produces, and at what cost or effort).
This will help you refine where to put more effort and what might not be worth it. Remember, one tactic is not a complete strategy – it’s the synergy of multiple tactics that will drive steady growth .
You have the power to shape your business’s future.
It starts with knowing your numbers – like we did with the revenue, leads, and cost calculation.
That knowledge gives you a clear target.
From there, it’s all about execution: either writing the checks or rolling up your sleeves (or a bit of both). So set your goals, run your numbers, and then get after it.
Your 1000+ jobs a year are out there – you now have a roadmap to reach them.✌️
Justin Hubbard
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